How Long Will My Retirement Savings Last?
🧮 Retirement Portfolio Longevity Calculator
Safe Withdrawal Rates by Retirement Horizon
| Horizon | Safe Rate | Multiplier | $1M Annual Withdrawal | Best For |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 5–6% | 16–20× | $50,000–$60,000 | Retire at 75+; shorter expected retirement |
| 30 years (standard) | 4% | 25× | $40,000 | Traditional retirement age 65; Bengen (1994) |
| 35 years | 3.5% | 28.57× | $35,000 | Early retirement age 55–60 |
| 40–50 years | 3–3.5% | 29–33× | $30,000–$35,000 | FIRE movement; retire at 45–55 |
📌 William Bengen's 2026 update: The original creator of the 4% rule now suggests 4.7% may be appropriate based on current market valuations and bond yields. Most financial planners still recommend 4% as a conservative baseline for planning purposes. Source: Davenport Advisors 2026.
The Withdrawal Order That Saves $50K–$200K
The account you withdraw from first has a massive impact on your lifetime tax bill. The conventional tax-efficient withdrawal sequence:
- Taxable brokerage accounts first — capital gains taxed at preferential rates (0%, 15%, 20%); spend dividends first, then sell appreciated assets
- Tax-deferred accounts second (Traditional 401(k), Traditional IRA) — withdraw to fill lower tax brackets; plan around RMDs starting at age 73
- Tax-free accounts last (Roth IRA, Roth 401(k)) — let them compound tax-free as long as possible; no RMDs on Roth IRA
⚠️ Roth Conversion Window: Early retirement (ages 60–72) is the ideal time to convert Traditional IRA funds to Roth while income is low and before Required Minimum Distributions begin at 73. Each dollar converted at a low tax rate is a dollar that will never be subject to RMDs or future tax rate increases. Most retirees can convert $20,000–$60,000/year without exceeding a 12–22% bracket.
Frequently Asked Questions
- Bengen, W.P. (1994). Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data. Journal of Financial Planning — original 4% rule study
- Cooley, Hubbard & Walz (1998). Retirement Savings: Choosing a Withdrawal Rate That Is Sustainable — Trinity Study
- IRS, Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) 2026; IRS Life Expectancy Tables
- IRS, 2026 Federal Income Tax Brackets
- SECURE 2.0 Act (Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2023) — RMD age change to 73
- Davenport Advisors (2026). Updated 4% Rule Analysis
- Social Security Administration, Monthly Statistical Snapshot November 2025
